Moving up The Generic Pharma Value Chain

Moving up The Generic Pharma Value Chain

June 2014 underscores a significant development for the generic drug exporters of India. Much-delayed and highly expected launch of generic Diovan (Valsartan) is now on its way, as Ranbaxy has reportedly received US-FDA approval to launch the first generic version of this blood pressure drug in the United States.

As deliberated in my earlier blog titled “Big Pharma’s Windfall Gain From Indian Pharma’s Loss, Costs American Patients Dear”, delay in launch of the generic equivalent of Diovan caused a windfall gain for Novartis from US$ 1.7 billion US sales of this drug last year, instead of usual declining turnover of an innovative molecule post patent expiry.

The generic version of Diovan (Valsartan) is estimated to contribute around US$ 200 million to Ranbaxy’s sales and US$ 100 million to its profit after tax, during the exclusive sale period. Against these numbers, delay in the launch of generic Diovan has reportedly cost payers and consumers in America around US$ 900 million in the first 18 months.

Since four Ranbaxy manufacturing facilities in India are now facing US-FDA ‘import bans’ due to violations of ‘Good Manufacturing Practices’ of the American regulator, its Ohm Laboratories unit located in New Jersey has been allowed to make generic Valsartan for the US.

Go for gold: 

Hopefully, Ranbaxy would soon get similar approvals from the US drug regulator for its ‘first to launch’ generic versions of Nexium (AstraZeneca) and Valcyte (Roche), as well.

It is worth mentioning that around 90 percent price erosion would take place with intense competition, as soon the period of exclusivity for such ‘first to launch’ generics gets over.

Nonetheless, this is indeed a very interesting development, when the global generic pharmaceutical segment is reportedly showing signals of a tough chase for overtaking the branded pharmaceuticals sector in terms of sales turnover too.

India has a huge a stake in this ball game, as it supplies around 30 to 40 percent of the world’s generic medicines and is well poised to improve its pharma exports from around US$ 15 billion per year to US$ 25 billion by 2016. Since 2012, this objective has remained an integral part of the country’s global initiative to position India as the “pharmacy to the world.”

However, considering the recent hiccups of some Indian pharma majors in meeting with the quality requirements of the US-FDA, though this target appears to be a challenging one for now, the domestic pharma players should continue to make all out efforts to go for the gold by moving up the generic pharmaceutical value chain. In this context, it is worth noting that penetration of the generic drugs in the US is expected to increase from the current 83 percent to 86-87 percent very shortly, as the ‘Obamacare’ takes off with full steam.

Moving up the value chain:

In the largest pharma market of the world – the United States, global generic companies are increasingly facing cutthroat price competition with commensurate price erosion, registering mixed figures of growth. Even in a situation like this, some companies are being immensely benefited from moving up the value chain with differentiated generic product launches that offer relatively high margin, such as, specialty dermatologicals, complex injectibles, other products with differentiated drug delivery systems and above all biosimilars.

As a consequence of which, some Indian generic companies have already started focusing on the development of value added, difficult to manufacture and technology intensive generic product portfolios, in various therapy areas. Just to cite an example, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL) is now reportedly set to take its complex generic drug Fondaparinux sodium injection to Canada and two other emerging markets.

Thus, those Indian pharma companies, which would be able to develop a robust product portfolio of complex generics and other differentiated formulations for the global market, would be much better placed in positioning themselves significantly ahead of the rest, both in terms of top and the bottom lines.

One such key opportunity area is the development of a portfolio of biosimilar drugs – the large molecule proteins.

Global interest in biosimilars:

According to the June 2014 report of GlobalData, a leading global research and consulting firm, the biosimilars industry is already highly lucrative. More than 100 deals involving companies focused on the development of biosimilars have been completed over the past 7 years, with a total value in excess of US$10.7 billion.

GlobalData further states, there are a number of factors driving the initiative toward global adoption of biosimilars, from austerity measures and slow economic growth in the US, to an aging population and increasing demand for healthcare in countries, such as Japan.

The costs of biosimilars are expected to be, at least, 20 to 30 percent lower than the branded biologic therapies. This still remains a significant reduction, as many biologics command hundreds of thousands of dollars for 1 year’s treatment.

According to another media report, biosimilars are set to replace around 70 percent of global chemical drugs over the next couple of decades on account of ‘safety parameters and a huge portion of biologic products going off patent’.

Biosimilar would improve patient access:

Although at present over 150 different biologic medicines are available globally, just around 11 countries have access to low cost biosimilar drugs, India being one of them. Supporters of biosimilar medicines are indeed swelling as the time passes by.

It has been widely reported that the cost of treatment with innovative and patented biologic drugs can vary from US$ 100,000 to US$ 300,000 a year. A 2010 review on biosimilar drugs published by the Duke University highlights that biosimilar equivalents of novel biologics would improve access to such drugs significantly, for the patients across the globe.

Regulatory hurdles easing off:

In the developed world, European Union (EU) had taken a lead towards this direction by putting a robust system in place, way back in 2003. In the US, along with the recent healthcare reform process of the Obama administration, the US-FDA has already charted the regulatory pathway for biosimilar drugs, though more clarifications are still required.

Not so long ago, the EU had approved Sandoz’s (Novartis) Filgrastim (Neupogen brand of Amgen), which is prescribed for the treatment of Neutropenia. With Filgrastim, Sandoz will now have at least 3 biosimilar products in its portfolio.

Key global players:......

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Higher The Healthcare Spend - Better The Healthcare Performance: A Myth?

It is generally believed, higher the per-capita expenditure of healthcare, better is the overall ‘healthcare performance’ of a nation.

However, this myth has recently been busted by a new study, the take-home message of which would be quite relevant for India too. It flags a very important point, just as too low per-capita expenditure on healthcare fails to deliver an optimal healthcare performance to the target population, higher health expenditure, on the other hand, does not have any linear relationship with commensurately better healthcare performance either.

The question, therefore, comes up: What then would be the optimal per-capita spending on healthcare to offer quality healthcare performance in a country like India?

The study:

According to this recent Commonwealth Fund report , per-capita expenditures on healthcare in 2011 of eleven wealthy nations were as follows:

Per-Capita Healthcare Spend in 2011

Rank	Country	US $
1.	United States	8,508
2.	Norway	5,669
3.	Switzerland	5,643
4.	Netherlands	5,099
5.	Canada	4,522
6.	Germany	4,495
7.	France	4,111
8.	Sweden	3,925
9.	Australia	3,800
10.	United Kingdom	3,405
11.	New Zealand	3,182

Against the above spend, the ‘Healthcare Performance’ rankings of the same 11 nations were as under, showing no linear relationship between higher per-capita healthcare expenditure and better healthcare performance:

Performance of Healthcare System

Rank	Country
1.	United Kingdom
2.	Switzerland
3.	Sweden
4.	Australia
5.	Germany
6.	Netherlands
7.	New Zealand
8.	Norway
9.	France
10.	Canada
11.	United States

The basis of ranking:

Interestingly, though the healthcare expenditure of the United States of America at 17.4 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the highest in the world, according to thisreport, America ranks worst among all these nations, namely, France, Australia, Germany, Canada, Sweden, New Zealand, Norway, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

The ranking was made based various factors, which include quality of care, access to doctors and equity throughout the country.

The U.K. ranked best, with Switzerland following a close second, though their respective per-capita expenditures on healthcare were much less than the United States.

Holds good in BRIC perspective too:

Coming to the BRIC nations’ perspective, though India’s per-capita healthcare spend has been the lowest among these 4 countries, the following quick example would clearly establish that here also the healthcare performance does not have any linear relationship with the per-capita healthcare spend:

Per capita Healthcare expenditure in 2011: Country Comparison

Country	US $	World Rank	Physician/1000 people	Hospital/1000 people	Life expectancy at birth (years)
Brazil	1120.56	41	1.76	2.3	73.4
Russia	806.7	55	4.31	9.6	69.0
India	59.1	152	0.65	0.9	67.08
China	278.02	99	1.82	3.8	73.5

(Source: WHO data)

Taking the United States as an example:

To illustrate the point further, let me take the US details as an example, as it incurs the highest per-capita expenditure on healthcare. When that is the fact, does high healthcare spending of the US help the patients commensurately? 

Going by these reports, it does not appear so, as:....

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Big Pharma’s Windfall Gain from Indian Pharma’s Loss, Costs American Patients Dear

According to US-FDA, its ‘Import Bans’ on quality grounds of the drugs manufactured at various Indian facilities, such as, Ranbaxy’s Paonta Sahib, Dewas and Mohali and Toansa plants, were reportedly solely directed at negating the health safety risks of American patients consuming those medicines.

US Media now raises a critical question:

Interestingly, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has now flagged a very valid question, whether such US-FDA drug ‘Import Bans’ have really worked in the best interest of American patients, as it has cost the US consumers millions of dollars.

Vindicates past apprehensions:

I also had raised similar apprehensions, at least twice, in my blog posts, one in March 17, 2014 in an article titled, “Loss of Ranbaxy, Gain of Big Pharma…And Two Intriguing Coincidences” and the other on June 9, 2014 in another article titled, “Drugs From The Same Indian Plant: Safe For Europe, Unsafe For America, Why?”

Cheaper generic launches got interrupted:

The report states that the ‘Import Bans’ of products manufactured in the above four plants of Ranbaxy kept the Indian company away from its ‘first to launch’ opportunities of at least two blockbuster drugs, namely, Diovan of Novartis and Nexium of AstraZeneca, besides Valcyte of Roche.

As a result of these ‘Import Bans’ of the US-FDA, the concerned global pharma majors were able to continue selling their high priced brands even long after the respective patent expiries, causing hardship to many patients.

Caused windfall gain to Big Pharma:

WSJ reports, these ‘Import Bans’ hugely helped the Big Pharma, as the combined sales of those three drugs in the US totaled US$ 8 billion in 2013. It also states that unavailability of those three generic equivalents would cost US$125 million annually just in 39 counties of upstate New York. This is mainly because once generics are available, patented drug prices usually fall by 80 percent or more.

Thus, the net losers became the purchasers and patients, along with the federal government, the report says.

A serious question to ponder even for the US:

Quoting Columbia Law School professor Scott Hemphill, the report highlights a serious question over whether the US-FDA rules are too complex to manage, or to anticipate strange, unusual and unfortunate consequences that result from them. It also expresses concern over how such delays in generic entry raising the drug treatment costs in the United States.

A repetitive saga:

The saga of losing ‘first to launch’ opportunities, seems to be repetitive in nature for Ranbaxy.

As I stated earlier in my above blog posts, it is also worth noting from another report that:

“Nexium is the third drug for which a Ranbaxy generic has been delayed. Novartis’ heart drug Diovan went off patent in September of 2012. Instead of seeing its sales of the drug plunge last year, the Swiss drug maker earned US $1.7 billion from it, according to the drug maker’s annual report. Roche’s antiviral Valcyte has also escaped competition after going off patent last year. Roche doesn’t break down U.S. sales but reported global revenues of $ 672 million last year, up 10%.”

The same plant meets drug safety standards of Europe, but ‘unsafe’ for America!

In this context it is worth noting, according to another recent media report, quite contrary to the stern actions by US-FDA, European drug regulators have commented as follows on a plant that has been banned by the american regulator:

“The inspection team concluded that there was no evidence that any medicines on the EU market that have an active pharmaceutical ingredient manufactured in Toansa were of unacceptable quality or presented a risk to the health of patients taking them.”

They further added, “This conclusion was supported by tests of samples of these medicines, all of which met the correct quality specifications.”

Isn’t this indeed intriguing?

Conclusion:

The USFDA quagmire in India raises more questions than answes, but one critical trend, where the ultimate gainer is the Big Pharma and the net losers are the American patients and the Indian pharma industry.

Be that as it may, it is about time to for the Modi Government to take up this important issue at the highest level in the United States, as the losers would continue to be the domestic pharma manufacturers in India and in the American patients, Big Pharma being the main beneficiary.

Considering all these, doesn’t this jigsaw puzzle require to be resolved once and for all, without any further dilly-dally?

By: Tapan J. Ray 

Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own, written in my individual and personal capacity. I do not represent any other person or organization for this opinion.