Covid 19: Some Unanswered Questions in India

Covid 19: Some Unanswered Questions in India

Ending all speculations, the national lockdown 2.0 with all previous stringent provisions and more, expecting to bring the deadly microbe under a tight leash in India, commenced on April 15, 2020. This is expected to continue till May 03, 2020, keeping a window of opportunity open, for a case by case review, after April 20, which is today. This is now a known fact. But what is still not known to many are the answers to some critical question, such as, the following three, for example:

• Will the standalone plan for strict compliance of prescribed social distancing norms for over 40 days and possibly much beyond, a comprehensive strategy to end the Covid 19 warfare in India?

• As this game plan to save lives also involves livelihood of a large population, will it lead to hunger, involving many families?

• When will the Covid19 nightmare end in India and how?

In this article, let me deal with these three questions, with illustrations.

Is social distancing’ alone a comprehensive strategy?

Experts believe that ‘social distancing’ is undoubtedly one of the key strategic components in the war against the invisible enemy Covid 19, especially to contain the spread of the virus. However, it’s not considered a standalone or a comprehensive strategy to win Covid19 warfare, for good, as it doesn’t help identify asymptomatic individuals – potential candidates for the continued spread of Coronavirus.

What scientific studies reveal?

Covid19 testing strategy in India is mainly focused on foreign returned and symptomatic individuals, alongside contact tracing. Interestingly, the study on the Covid19 outbreak in China, published by Nature Medicine on April 15, 2020, concluded – 44 per cent of those who tested positive, contracted the disease from an asymptomatic person. This happens, as the viral shedding, that can infect another individual, takes place, at least, 2-3 days before symptoms manifest.

Thus, along with containing the spread, it is equally important to trace the asymptomatic individuals at an early stage, then isolate and quarantine them at appropriate facilities, as necessary. Accordingly, many countries follow intensive testing guidelines from an early stage of disease spread. South Korea, for example, has been successful in this area, during the first wave. The same is being followed in the subsequent waves of outbreaks, till an effective antidote, like a vaccine is available to end the war. Hence, this is considered as a comprehensive strategy in the interim period. It was also well discussed and captured by the Indian media.

Lockdowns delay the peaks by about three months:

Experts indicated, ‘lockdowns merely delay the outbreak’s peak by about three months.’ They have also cautioned: ‘Asian countries risk new waves of Coronavirus infections when they lift lockdowns. The same could happen in the rest of the world.’ The world is now witnessing the second wave of outbreak in many countries.

Two seemingly contradictory messages surface:

Going by the ICMR data,…continue reading…