India Not To Vaccinate All For Covid Control: Upsides And Unknowns

India Not To Vaccinate All For Covid Control: Upsides And Unknowns 

With 9.46 million cases and 137,621 deaths, India has currently the world’s second-highest number of coronavirus infections, behind only the United States, reported Reuters on December 01, 2020.

Fathoming seriousness of rapidly unfolding Covid induced all round disruptions across the nation, on October 17, 2020, the Indian Prime Minister issued a clarion call. He called for full preparedness of the country to ensure speedy access to Covid vaccines for every citizen.

However, the above view was subsequently changed. On December 02, 2020, quoting Union Health Ministry of India, it was reported, ‘the Government has never spoken about vaccinating the entire country.’ The Director General of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) said, “the Indian government is of the opinion that vaccination against the deadly pandemic may be needed only to the extent of ‘breaking the chain.’ If we’re able to vaccinate a critical mass of people and break virus transmission, then we may not have to vaccinate the entire population.”

Why the PM said ‘Covid vaccines for every citizen’ at that time?

In my view, what the PM said made perfect sense at that time. This is also vindicated by a fact-based interesting discussion in The Wire on July 16, 2020, carrying a title – ‘How Effective Does a Vaccine Need to Be to Stop the Pandemic? It quoted an in-depth study concluding, “a vaccine with an efficacy as low as 60% could still stop the pandemic and allow society to return to normal. However, most, if not all of the population would have to be vaccinated.”

This research article, titled ‘Vaccine Efficacy Needed for a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic as the Sole Intervention,’ was published in The American Journal of Preventive Medicine (AJPM) on July 15, 2020. The study found that the vaccine has to have an efficacy of at least 70% to prevent an epidemic and of at least 80% to largely extinguish an epidemic without any other measures (e.g., social distancing).

The PM’s observation will make even better sense, while taking into account the draft ‘Regulatory Guidelines for Development of Vaccines with Special Consideration for Covid-19 vaccine in India. This guidance document for vaccine developers was issued by the Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO), and was reported by the media on September 23, 2020. It also says, among other specifics, a COVID-19 vaccine candidate should show at least 50 per cent efficacy during phase III of clinical trials for it to be widely deployed.”

Why health ministry’s current plan of not vaccinating all, also makes sense:

Indian Health Ministry’s latest assessment that vaccination against the deadly pandemic may be needed only to the extent of ‘breaking the chain,’ also makes sense in the rapidly emerging contemporary scenario.

It makes sense, considering, even the World Health Organization (WHO) experts have, reportedlypointed to a 65%-70% vaccine coverage rate as sufficient to reach population immunity, based on scientific reasons. This raises the subsequent question of who in India will get priority for vaccination.

The priority group for Covid vaccination in India:

As reported on November 26, 2020, according to the Principal Scientific Advisor of India, about 300 million people will be part of the first ‘wave’ to receive Covid vaccines in India. This number includes, health care workers, totaling 30 million, police personnel and those above 50 and those younger with underlying illnesses that make them vulnerable. However, everything in this area doesn’t seem to be as clear or straight forward as is widely expected. India’s Covid vaccination plan still seems to be a work in progress.

India’s Covid vaccine plan is still a work in progress:

This is evident from many reports, such as one of December 01, 2020. This report says, experts still believe that the government should spell out whether the vaccination should be confined to only uninfected individuals or encompass everyone. These reports may vindicate the murmur in the corridors of power that many details of Covid vaccination in India are yet to crystallize.

Let me quote the Indian Prime Minister in this regard, as he is not only the head of the current Government, but is also the national voice on all contemporary issues in the external world.

Interestingly, on November 24, the Prime Minister himself acknowledged: ‘Will go by scientific advice on Covid vaccine, don’t have many answers yet.’ He made it clear that he did not yet have answers to:

• Vaccine dosage
• Pricing or sourcing

Although, his Government has been in touch with local and global vaccine developers, nations and multilateral institutions to ensure vaccine procurement, the PM added.

Curiously, unlike what the Principal Scientific Advisor of India, ... continue reading of...'India Not To Vaccinate All For Covid Control: Upsides And Unknowns' at https://bit.ly/3gjMaWb